ROME, 29 March. - (ANA) - The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates the increase in acute hunger following the Middle East conflict, modelling the pass-through of the price surge in global energy markets to domestic prices. The price increases reduce access to food among households that could barely afford a minimal diet before the conflict. For the 53 countries with available data, the number of people facing acute hunger is projected to increase by 45 million—from a pre conflict baseline of 318 million—if the conflict continues through the second quarter of this year. Altogether, this means that up to 363 million people could become acutely food insecure in 2026.

 

 

 

 

The Middle East conflict began at a time when the global economy continued to show notable resilience despite successive crises. Global growth was nonetheless projected to slow from 2.7 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, a pace the World Bank deems insufficient to reduce extreme poverty. Moreover, the post?COVID recovery has been sharply uneven across country groups. While advanced economies have recovered well,

more than one?quarter of emerging market and developing economies —particularly low?income countries and those affected by fragility and conflict—still have per capita incomes below 2019 levels.

 

In many low?income countries, this weak recovery has coincided with tight public finances; around half are in or near debt distress, limiting governments’ scope to cushion additional shocks.

 

Since the last global price spike in 2022, international food prices have eased. In February 2026, the FAO Food Price Index edged up slightly to 125.3, remaining 24 percent above its pre?pandemic level but 22 percent below its peak in March 2022.

 

Domestically, however, food price trends were uneven over the past year—declining in some major food?crisis contexts (including Gaza, Myanmar, Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) but rising by more than 15 percent in a dozen countries and by 50

percent or more in Venezuela, Iran and Sudan.

 

Global acute food insecurity has remained stubbornly high and far above pre?pandemic levels (Figure 2). In 2025, an estimated 318 million people were acutely food insecure across 68 countries with WFP operational presence and available data—around 170

million above pre?pandemic levels.

 

The lower published figure compared with 2024 (343 million across 74 countries) mainly reflects missing updated data for six countries and does not indicate an actual reduction in hunger.

 

Arguably, the most important impact pathway from the conflict in the Middle East to world hunger runs through the conflict’s impact on global energy markets. The Middle East remains the backbone of the global energy system because it accounts for a dominant share of the world’s oil and gas supply. The region produces over 30 percent of global oil and holds around 20 percent of global gas reserves. As the energy price increases transmit to local markets in poor countries, food becomes less affordable.

 

Energy is a direct input into agriculture through fuel, fertilizer and transport. Oil shocks transmit quickly into food prices, particularly in import-dependent economies.

 

Crude oil prices have risen sharply, reaching US$97 per barrel (WTI) on 19 March. Prices have already surpassed the threshold of US$100 per barrel several times since the onset of the crisis. Oil exceeded US$100 in recent decades only in 2007–08, 2011–13, and 2022.

 

Each episode coincided with major pressures on global food prices. - (ANA)-  

 

To download the full report, visit: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000172722/download/

 

AB/ANA/29 March 2026 - - -