LONDON, 30 Jan. - (ANA) - Disruptions to mine output, a collapse in refining margins and stockpiling by the United States have pushed the global copper market into a period of sustained strain. Recycling and efficiency gains should prevent a catastrophic shortfall from emerging, but persistent tightness will raise costs and complicate defence, energy-transition and AI-infrastructure plans through the late 2020s.

 

The global supply of refined copper is likely to be constrained in 2026 and beyond by a combination of disruptions and strategic stockpiling by the United States. Market tightness is being shaped by a convergence of supply-chain frictions, policy choices and accelerating demand from electricity grids, defence production and the construction of infrastructure related to artificial intelligence (AI). 

 

Copper is an essential input for both traditional manufacturing and construction as well as the green-energy and digital industries. Consequently, its supply–demand balance is important for the global economy. Subdued global economic activity has placed limits on overall copper demand for now, but usage is growing rapidly in the renewable-energy, electric-vehicle (EV) and AI sectors. On the supply side, copper mining faces challenges in the form of resource nationalism, environmental regulation, adverse weather and public opposition. Due to these factors, it is likely that the market will move into a structural deficit in the 2030s. Lessons from the past suggest that, rather than derailing the green transition or AI roll-out, high prices will incentivise greater recycling, and technological breakthroughs will likely reduce the quantities of metal needed.

 

 

 

 

The copper market was roughly balanced in 2025 – that is, refined production met consumption – as copper supply increased 3.4% and consumption increased 3.0%. Yet mine supply was severely disrupted, which will likely create a market deficit in 2026 as smelters struggle with the more limited supply of copper ore.

 

While copper has been in use for over 10,000 years, demand has nearly quadrupled in the last 50 years. The main drivers of this increase include population growth, rising incomes, electrification and industrialisation, most notably in China. Copper is an excellent conductor of heat and electricity and is resistant to corrosion. It is the preferred option for electrical wiring and has many other uses in the construction industry, such as in plumbing, but its relatively high cost means that it is now less likely to be used. It is, however, still vital to both the electronics and defence industries.

 

Copper plays a major role in EVs, renewable-energy systems and, since 2024, AI data centres. An EV typically contains about four times as much copper as an internal-combustion-engine vehicle, and the metal is an important component in EV charging systems. In November 2025, Washington added copper to its list of ‘critical minerals’, which it defines as materials that are ‘essential for national security, economic stability, and supply chain resilience’. Copper was added to the European Union’s Critical Raw Materials list in 2023.   - (ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/30 January 2026 - - -