PARIS, 15 Dec. - (ANA) - The global economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, supported by improved financial conditions, rising AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policies, according to a report published by OECD. 

 

However, underlying fragilities are increasing. Labour markets are showing first signs of weakening despite the OECD unemployment rate steady at 4.9%, with job vacancies falling below their 2019 average in many countries and confidence softening. 

 

Risks around the outlook remain significant, including the prospect of further trade barriers, a potential sharp repricing of risk in financial markets, potentially amplified by stresses in leveraged non-bank financial institutions and volatile crypto-asset markets. Lingering fiscal concerns could lead to further increases in long-term bond yields, which may tighten financial conditions and elevate debt-service burdens, potentially weighing on economic growth.

 

Global growth is projected to slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, before picking up to 3.1% in 2027. The OECD Economic Outlook highlights a range of risks, including further increases in trade barriers. Weaker-than-expected growth, lower-than-expected returns from net AI investment, or upside inflation surprises could all trigger widespread risk repricing in financial markets.  

 

Central banks should remain alert to shifts in inflation dynamics. Headline inflation remains sticky in some regions but is projected to be back to target by 2027 in almost all major economies. Annual consumer price inflation in the G20 is projected to ease from 3.4% this year to 2.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.-(ANA) -

 

To download the full report, visit: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-2_413f7d0a/9f653ca1-en.pdf

 

 

AB/ANA/15 December 2025 - - -