LONDON, 15 July. - (ANA) - A global drop in births is set to have a “jaw-dropping” impact on societies, say researchers. 

 

Falling fertility rates around the world could lead to "enormous social change" and new policies on reproductive health, researchers have said.

 

If the fertility rate, which refers to the average number of children a woman gives birth to, falls below 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall.

 

A group of researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics said the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 and they expect it will fall below 1.7 by 2100.

 

This is in contrast to 1950 when women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.

 

The researchers' study, published in the Lancet, said the number of people on the planet could rise to 9.7 billion around 2064 and then drop to 8.8. billion by the end of the century.

 

Spain, Portugal and Thailand are included in a list of 23 countries which are expected see their population more than halve.

 

Professor Christopher Murray told BBC News the projections were "jaw-dropping".

 

India is expected to take China's place as the most populous nation in the world, as they predict China's population will rise to 1.4 billion in four years and then nearly halving to 732 million by the end of the century.

 

The researchers projected that Japan's population could fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of 2100.

 

Meanwhile, in the same timeframe, they expect Italy's population to drop from 61 million to 28 million.

 

The UK is expected to peak at 75 million in 2063, and fall to 71 million by 2100.

 

Speaking about the projections, Professor Murray said: "That's a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline.

 

"I think it's incredibly hard to think this through and recognise how big a thing this is; it's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganise societies."

 

The researchers said continued trends in female education and improved access to contraception were speeding up the decline in fertility and slowing population growth.

 

A sustained drop in the total fertility rate in countries such as China and India could have economic, social, environmental and geopolitical consequences, said the researchers.

 

They expect that the countries will have to create new policies to adapt to the declining fertility rate as well as introducing new measures to improve female reproductive health.   - (ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/15 July 2020 - - -