Second wave of coronavirus ‘could kill up to 120,000 Britons’

LONDON, 14 July. - (ANA) - Britain must start “intense preparations” for a second wave of coronavirus that has the potential to kill as many as 120,000 people, according to health chiefs at the Academy of Medical Sciences. The experts warned that a resurgence of cases this winter could overwhelm the NHS. “The risk of this happening could be reduced if we take action immediately,” said Stephen Holgate, professor of immunopharmacology at the University of Southampton.

Packed parks and beaches and the prospect of an alcohol-fuelled “super Saturday” when pubs reopen next week have sparked predictions of an impending surge in coronavirus infections.

Although reports of new Covid-19 cases currently remain in decline, “health leaders are calling for an urgent review to ensure Britain is properly prepared for the ‘real risk’ of a second wave”, The Telegraph reports.


Second wave - or more of the first?


While the term is widely used, “the concept of a second wave is flawed”, says Jeremy Rossman, a senior lecturer in virology at Kent University.

“We are not between waves,” he explains in an article first published on The Conversation. “We have new cases in the UK every day. We are in an ebb and flow of Covid-19 transmission that is continually affected by our precautionary actions.”

A true second wave is more likely to come in the winter, says England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty. That’s when respiratory infections spread more easily - and also, unfortunately, when the NHS is under most strain.

“It is entirely plausible for a second wave to actually be more severe than the first if it is not mitigated,” Whitty said last month. “Every country has got an extremely difficult balancing act, and we all need to be honest about the fact there are no easy solutions here.”

However, says Rossman, “we should not fear an inevitable second wave”, but instead act now to prevent or contain it.


Test and trace


In an open letter to ministers published in the British Medical Journal this week, health leaders including the presidents of the royal colleges of surgeons and nursing called for an acceleration of planning to deal with a flare-up of Covid-19 cases.

“Many elements of the infrastructure needed to contain the virus are beginning to be put in place,” the letter said, “but substantial challenges remain.”

One such challenge is the contact-tracing app, which last week was shelved until autumn at the earliest.

The UK has implemented other systems for tracking new outbreaks, however.

A manual contact-tracing programme launched on 28 May has succeeded in contacting 113,925 people to warn them that they have come into contact with someone infected with the new coronavirus, according to the Department of Health. This figure represents 89% of a total 128,566 identified as recent close contacts of the 21,105 people who tested positive for Covid-19.

Latest figures show that of 6,923 people who tested positive for coronavirus in England last week, the system failed to reach almost 30%. To put that another way, “2,054 people with the virus – and potentially thousands of their close contacts – could not be traced”, says The Independent.   - (ANA) -

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