Factoring Russia into the US-Chinese equation on hypersonic glide vehicles
 

STOCKHOLM, 08 Feb. - (ANA) - SIPRI is proud to announce the publication of its first SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security of 2017 from Dr Lora Saalman. The paper seeks to take the current dyadic approach to US-Chinese competition in the field of hypersonic glide vehicles and to insert Russia as a factor that is shaping China’s views on the subject.

Hypersonic glide vehicles are a growing factor in strategic stability calculations. Given their speed, precision and manoeuvrability, these systems are well suited to defeating missile defences. Despite the growing number of countries pursuing these capabilities, the focus on how these systems affect strategic stability tends to be at the bilateral level, which misses the inherent complexity of this emerging field of technological competition and escalation. Given that hypersonic glide tests conducted by China, Russia and the USA have not yet led to deployment, there is still an opportunity for greater analysis of how these technologies will affect the postural evolution of these three countries.
 
Presenting the key takeaways from 872 of 1675 surveyed Chinese-language texts, the author reviews more than a decade of research on hypersonic and boost-glide technologies, revealing a growing Chinese interest in Russia. Combining this trend with both countries’ shared concerns over US missile defences suggests that it is time to start factoring in how Russia’s calculations on its own prompt global strike programme might shape China’s decisions on future nuclear and conventional payloads, and the targets and range of its own hypersonic glide vehicle programme.
 
Section II uses this analysis to provide an overview of the growing intersection between China’s and Russia’s strategic postures and threat perceptions. Section III discusses the key technologies related to payloads and targeting. Section IV provides an overview of postural debates within China on rapid response and asymmetry. Section V offers conclusions on how to integrate a more nuanced multilateral framework into analyses of hypersonic glide vehicles and strategic stability.

Hypersonic glide vehicles explained… On reaching near space, the systems are ejected from their missile boosters to begin their glide phase, during which they can accelerate to upwards of Mach 5 or 6138 kilometres per hour. The glide phase allows them to manoeuvre aerodynamically to evade interception and extends the range of their booster missiles. Unlike conventional re-entry vehicles, which follow a predictable ballistic trajectory, hypersonic glide vehicles are almost impossible to intercept using conventional missile defence tracking systems. - (ANA) -

AB/ANA/ 08 February 2017 - - -