WASHINGTON, 15 Oct. - (ANA) - US President Donald Trump’s pledge not to attack Iran before next month’s US midterm elections gives Tehran greater room to harass Gulf shipping while preparing for possible renewed US strikes, regional analysts said.

 

The US House of Representatives and Senate elections on November 3 provide a window for Iran to prolong a war of attrition while seeking to avoid further escalation, said Neil Quilliam, a Middle East specialist at Chatham House and AGBI columnist.

 

Asked whether Trump’s announcement had handed Iran an advantage, he said: “The midterm deadline has given Tehran greater room for manoeuvre,” but added that the Iranian leadership was likely to calibrate its actions to avoid provoking an escalation.

 

Up to 28 commercial vessels have been targeted in and around the Strait of Hormuz since September 28, according to maritime security company Marisks, the highest frequency of attacks since the conflict began in February.

 

In an October 13 update, the Greece-based risk assessment provider reported that a crude tanker struck near the UAE’s Khor Khwair two days earlier had broadcast a status of “not under command” – potentially indicating impaired manoeuvrability.

 

Another tanker was said to have suffered damage to its steering gear room during an outbound transit through the strait on October 11.

 

 

 

 

Washington’s calculations sit within an interconnected global energy crunch. Gulf disruption and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are squeezing diesel supplies and raising costs for American farmers and truckers ahead of the midterms.

 

Nearly 3 million barrels a day of Gulf refining capacity has been shut because of attacks and a lack of viable export routes, according to the International Energy Agency. Recovering crude shipments have not fully restored supplies of refined fuels.

 

US diesel prices averaged $6.28 a gallon on October 13, about 70 percent above their level when the war began, according to the American Automobile Association.

 

In response, Trump has temporarily eased sanctions on diesel from Russia following a supply agreement with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

 

Alice Gower, a partner at Azure Strategy, a London-based advisory company focused on the Middle East and North Africa, cautioned against treating Trump’s comments on Truth Social as a firm indication of US intentions.

 

Further US military action would risk Iranian retaliation against US assets and Gulf allies, while the lack of a viable negotiating framework made a political resolution difficult, she said.

 

“Iran is seeking to change the terms of the confrontation, not simply wait out the midterms,” she said.

 

 

 

 

Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, threatened in a weekend interview to destroy US-linked data centres, AI facilities and undersea cables in the UAE and around the Strait of Hormuz if war resumed.

 

US action at sea has continued despite Trump’s pledge but without a wider resumption of strikes on Iran. US forces have supported shipping convoys using the corridor along Oman’s coast and enforced a blockade of Iranian ports.

 

US Central Command said a fighter jet disabled the Panama-flagged cargo vessel Ocean Molica in the Gulf of Oman on October 10 after the ship ignored blockade warnings.

 

Chatham House’s Quilliam warned that the current pause could give way to fighting after the US election.

 

Gulf governments favour a US-Iran agreement but could pursue smaller understandings with Tehran to maintain exports, Quilliam said.

 

“The GCC states do not want to be stuck in a no peace, no war situation,” he said.  - (ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/15 October 2026 - - -