By Adnan Ali

 

DAMASCUS, 12 June. - (ANA) - Russia's announcement that it intends to "restructure" the roles of its military bases in Syria comes at a notable moment, coinciding with a move within the US Congress to monitor the future of the Russian military presence in the country.

 

While the US House Armed Services Committee approved amendments to the Department of Defence budget bill requiring the Pentagon to prepare periodic reports on the future of Russian forces in Syria, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Moscow and Damascus are discussing the future of the Russian military presence, including the reorganisation of the functions of Russian military facilities.

 

This timing raises questions about the political and strategic messages Moscow intended to send and whether the restructuring represents the beginning of a Russian withdrawal or a repositioning aimed at preserving Russian influence in a new phase for Syria.

 

The decision by the US House Armed Services Committee reflects growing interest in tracking the fate of the Russian military presence following the political and military changes Syria witnessed since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in late 2024. 

 

Washington is seeking to assess potential changes in the deployment of Russian forces and their impact on regional security and the military balance.

 

In contrast, Zakharova's remarks appear to be a Russian assertion that Moscow remains a key player in Syria and that the issue of its military bases is not being considered in terms of withdrawal, but rather in terms of reorganising roles and missions in line with new developments.

 

Observers suggest Moscow intended through this announcement to send a dual message: first, to Washington, that the Russian presence remains in place and is the subject of direct discussions with Damascus; and second, to the new Syrian government, that it is prepared to develop the military relationship in a manner consistent with the priorities of the next phase.

 

 

 

 

The Russian military presence in Syria has declined significantly over the past two years.

 

After the number of Russian military bases and positions reached around 114 sites in mid-2024, the deployment gradually shrank following the fall of the former regime and then after battles between the Syrian government and the "Syrian Democratic Forces" in early 2026.

 

In February 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the Russian military presence had been reduced to only two main bases: Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia province and the naval base in Tartous on the Syrian coast.

 

Russia has therefore closed or withdrawn its forces from more than 112 bases and military positions that had been spread across various Syrian provinces.

 

Despite the reduction in military deployment, the two remaining bases continue to represent the cornerstone of Russian strategy in the region.

 

Hmeimim serves as the centre of Russian air operations in Syria and the primary launch point for Russian military activities in the eastern Mediterranean. It is also used to support Russian movements towards Africa, whether through regular forces or security companies linked to the Kremlin.

 

Tartous, meanwhile, is Russia's only naval base on the Mediterranean Sea and serves as a maintenance and supply hub for the Russian fleet outside Russian territorial waters.

 

It also represents a key link between Russia and its spheres of influence in Africa and the Red Sea.

 

Experts believe that abandoning Tartous in particular would be a major strategic blow to Russia's global influence because the base provides Moscow with a permanent foothold in the Mediterranean and secures logistical supply lines to Africa.

 

 

 

 

Moscow has not provided a clear definition of "restructuring", but current indicators suggest it does not entail a complete withdrawal or closure of the bases.

 

Nawar Shaaban Qabqibo, a security and military affairs researcher at the Arab Centre for Syrian Studies, said the intended restructuring does not appear to signal a Russian withdrawal from Syria so much as a change in troop numbers, mission profiles and legal status.

 

He told The New Arab that Hmeimim could shift from an operational base to a logistics centre with specific authorities. At the same time, Tartous's role could be redefined to combine maritime services and commercial cooperation.

 

This is particularly notable, as Zakharova's remarks came in the context of discussions about establishing a logistics centre to distribute Russian goods.

 

Regarding the future of the two bases, Qabqibo said the most likely scenario is that they will remain, but under a new agreement different from the arrangements granted to Russia during the former regime, giving Damascus greater oversight and clearer economic benefits.

 

He noted that the resupply of Hmeimim in recent weeks, alongside the transfer of some Russian forces from Qamishli to the coast, confirms that Moscow is working to concentrate its presence in Hmeimim and Tartous rather than end it.

 

"Therefore, we are witnessing a transition from a broad and open military presence to a smaller and more specialised one, subject to negotiations with the Syrian government and the new balance of interests between the two sides."

 

According to military analysts, the restructuring may include reorganising the size of Russian forces deployed in Syria, integrating some military units and reducing unnecessary formations.

 

It may also involve closing or downsizing secondary facilities and small support points.

 

This would mean concentrating military capabilities at Hmeimim and Tartous while shifting part of the bases' activities towards logistical, humanitarian, and civilian tasks, thereby reducing the direct combat nature of the Russian presence while preserving core military capabilities.

 

This view also aligns with remarks by Lavrov, who spoke about the possibility of using Russian bases as humanitarian and logistical centres to deliver aid to Africa, thereby reducing the traditional military character of the Russian presence and giving it broader political legitimacy.

 

Russia recognises that Syria remains its main gateway to influence in the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

 

The military presence on the Syrian coast gives Moscow permanent strategic access to the Mediterranean and provides a support hub for Russian operations in Africa.

 

It also serves as a source of leverage in regional balances involving the United States, Turkey and Israel, potentially giving Russia a role in any future security arrangements in southern Syria or the Golan Heights.

 

Political assessments indicate Moscow is also seeking to use its military presence as a bargaining tool in its relations with Damascus, particularly as cooperation continues in the fields of armaments, energy and reconstruction.

 

In conclusion, the Russian discussion of "restructuring" military bases in Syria does not appear to represent a prelude to withdrawal from the country.

 

Rather, it reflects an attempt to redefine the Russian presence in line with the new Syrian reality following the fall of the former regime and the contraction of military spheres of influence.

 

The timing of the Russian statements, coinciding with moves in the US Congress, underlines that the future of Russian bases has become part of the international competition over Syria.

 

While Washington monitors the fate of this presence, Moscow is seeking to establish a new formula based on retaining Hmeimim and Tartous while shifting some of their functions from purely military roles to logistical, humanitarian and economic ones, ensuring the continuation of Russian influence in the eastern Mediterranean for years to come.

 

Rashid Hourani, a researcher at Jusoor for Studies, told The New Arab that Russian bases in Syria are now subject to Syrian interests.

 

He said all current developments indicate these bases will no longer play the same military role they did during the Assad era.

 

The agreements governing their presence will be reconsidered, including those related to arming the Syrian army.

 

Today, the Syrian army is unlikely to continue relying primarily on Russia for its weapons, and therefore, these bases are being restructured to suit their new role.

 

Hourani said the role of these bases will be limited to providing logistical services for Russian bases in the region or in North Africa.

 

Consequently, they will not include any combat role in their structure or missions, and it appears Russia is willing to accept this to maintain a role in Syria.   - (ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/12 June 2026 - - -