BY HARRIET SINCLAIR

 

WASHINGTON, 07 Nov. - (ANA) - Leaders from around the world have congratulated Donald Trump amid concerns over the next US president's dislike of Nato, his 'America first' policies and potentially erratic approach to conflict zones such as the Ukraine and the Middle East.

 

Trump's election is likely to mark significant policy changes in the US that will have an impact abroad, as the country's foreign policy shifts to reflect his agenda.

 

As his election win became increasingly clear early on Wednesday, Keir Starmer was among world leaders congratulating Trump, with the PM adding that the UK-US special relationship will "continue to prosper".

 

French president Emmanuel Macron said he was “ready to work together” with Trump “with respect and ambition”, while EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen wrote on X that the EU and the US "were more than just allies" and that the pair should continue to "work together on a strong transatlantic agenda".

 

But what would the US's foreign policy look like under Trump?

 

 

 

 

The world is now likely to have to confront an upheaval in the US security and defence approach, with Trump expected to chart a new course on major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

 

The incoming president may have four years of experience under his belt when it comes to being the US commander-in-chief, but the geopolitical landscape in 2024 is very different from the one he inherited in 2016.

 

"The world has changed significantly since then," Thomas Graham, the senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff under George W Bush, told Yahoo News ahead of polling day. "It was much calmer... the geopolitical situation is much more troubled now than it was eight years ago when Trump became president."

 

When it comes to the war between Russia and Ukraine Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House think-tank, has said she thinks Trump will “pressure for some kind of deal”, telling the PA news agency that she would be “surprised” if he does not “press for some kind of freezing” in the conflict.

 

“That doesn’t mean handing those lands that Russia has captured over to Russia. It could mean some kind of simply ceasefire” with the “status of those lands left to the future”.

 

She added: “The question is whether Trump gives Ukraine a guarantee of American security, either through Nato or directly, because I think, without that, Russia is just going to wait its time and come back.

 

“Another question is whether Trump tries to do a deal with China to underpin that Russia deal, and that would be smart, because doing a deal with [Russian president Vladimir] Putin alone doesn’t always get you anywhere."

 

As well as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Trump's election comes as the brutal conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East continues, with neighbouring countries being pulled further into the hostilities.

 

Trump has been a strong defender of Israel, although his exact approach to the current conflict remains unclear, with Matthew Waxman, adjunct senior fellow for law and foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations saying prior to polling day: "Although Trump likes to talk tough, it's not clear how he would approach the Middle East beyond a very hard line on Iran."

 

Trump's win could be a boost for Benjamin Netanyahu, who once described him as “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House”. The Israeli PM congratulated Trump's election win by writing on X: "Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback! Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America."

 

However, Graham warned against taking any of Trump's foreign-policy campaign pledges too literally. "Trump is unpredictable you should never take him at his word especially when it comes to foreign policy," he said. "He has promised to solve Ukraine in 24 hours – what if it doesn't work? Will he turn on [Ukraine's president Volodymyr] Zelensky or [Russian president Vladimir] Putin because they have upset his grand plans?

 

"There would simply be a lot of uncertainty with Trump from the moment he is declared president elect to the inauguration and thereafter."

 

 

 

 

Trump has talked tough on trade for a while – promising higher tariffs on foreign-made goods, imports from China and vehicles.

 

Even prior to polling day, Europe was reported to be bracing for a second Trump presidency by preparing to push back on any threats of tariff increases and to take a harder line on the president-elect, according to Politico.

 

Trump's protectionist policies include a 100% tariff on all imported vehicles, 10% on imported foreign-made goods and even a proposed 200% tariff on cars from Mexico.

 

But while Trump has pledged greater trade tariffs in order to discourage companies from moving their operations abroad, or outsourcing aspects of their supply chain, research from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science has found the proposed tariffs would lead to a 0.64% reduction in US gross domestic product (GDP).

 

The study also found that other countries including China would also see a reduction in GDP should the proposed tariffs be introduced, increasing the risk of a trade war and deteriorating relations with other countries.

 

Maddox, of Chatham House, told the PA news agency that tariffs were one of the first things that Trump is likely to act on as "it’s one of the things he’s promised his followers".

 

She added: “We don’t quite know what the tariffs will be and on which goods. Goods on China going into the US will hit global growth and tariffs on other countries like Europe and the UK, they will affect our ability to sell things to the US."

 

Although it is worth noting that Trump's 'America first' policy during his first term actually made the US more reliant on foreign suppliers, according to research from Emerald Insight, as well as prompting other countries to introduce retaliatory tariffs on the US.

 

 

 

 

Trump has long been critical of Nato, objecting to the cost and referring to the organisation as "obsolete" during his 2016 campaign.

 

"A bipartisan consensus for many decades has held that alliances like Nato are central to American foreign policy and to international security. Trump and many of his supporters in Congress wrongly view alliances as outdated and a drag on American interests," Waxman said.

 

"A future president Trump probably would not formally withdraw from these pacts, as some fear, but he would weaken them. That would be a victory for China, Russia and despots around the world."

 

The fears around Trump's future relationship with the defence alliance are not unfounded – earlier this year, Trump suggested that he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who had not made a large enough financial contribution.

 

Regaling his supporters with a supposed conversation he had with a world leader when he was president, Trump told a rally in February that he would not back Nato countries that didn't pay their bills.

 

“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay, and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?’," he told the crowd. “I said, ‘You didn’t pay, you’re delinquent?’ No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay."

 

His comments prompted president Joe Biden's White House to issue a statement branding Trump's comments "appalling and unhinged".

 

Then Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said any suggestion that "allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security", putting soldiers from Nato countries at risk.

 

In a perhaps conciliatory move after Trump's election win, Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte wrote on X: "I just congratulated @realDonaldTrump on his election as President of the United States. His leadership will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong. I look forward to working with him again to advance peace through strength through #NATO."

 

 

 

 

Trump is "likely to take a much harder line on border security and immigration", Waxman of the Council on Foreign Relations told Yahoo News pre-polling.

 

The former president found a strong foothold with his base in 2016 by taking a tough line on immigration, using his first term in office to restrict legal immigration and issue a controversial travel ban for people from seven Muslim-majority countries.

 

He also pledged to "build the wall" along the US southern border with Mexico – a stretch of around 2,000-miles and a project he vowed Mexico would pay for.

 

However, his first term saw just 400 miles of wall constructed – of which just 80 miles were new fencing – and the US footed the substantial bill of around $15bn (£11.6bn) - much of which came from the defence budget.

 

Trump has made less of his flagship wall during this election cycle. However, his rhetoric on illegal immigration has lost none of its sting. The former president has made baseless claims that immigrants are "attacking villages and cities" and "eating the pets of the people that live there".

 

Indeed, the first two points of Trump's agenda for 2024 are on immigration. He has pledged to "seal the border and stop the migrant invasion" and "carry out the largest deportation operation in American history".

 

His first proposal may look at restarting construction on the border fence, while the second intends to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 in order to deport people born outside the US who have not yet obtained legal permission to remain.

 

Trump will also end DACA (deferred action for childhood arrivals), which allows those who arrived in the US as children without documentation access to education and temporary reprieve to live and work in the US legally.  - (ANA) -

 

AB/ANA/07 November 2024 - - -